GE2015 Post Mortem

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PAP’s election win more narrow than it seems: Ong Ye Kung
By Justin Ong
POSTED: 04 Nov 2015 21:59 UPDATED: 05 Nov 2015 08:01


SINGAPORE: The People’s Action Party’s (PAP) nearly 70 per cent vote triumph at the General Election (GE) is not the landslide it has been portrayed to be, said Acting Minister for Education Ong Ye Kung on Wednesday (Nov 4).

Speaking at a post-election conference organised by the Institute of Policy Studies, Mr Ong said the results of the GE were encouraging to the PAP and provided an important lesson as it showed that voters agreed with the direction of its policies rolled out since 2011.

These include the ramping up of the Housing Development Board programme to build more flats, property cooling measures to reduce prices somewhat, the tightening of foreign inflows without freezing them, and the Pioneer Generation Package amongst others.

But Mr Ong, who is also Senior Minister of State for Defence, said the PAP’s victory was more narrow than it seems. “Look at 2011 where the Opposition took six seats. Putting aside percentages and just looking at seats the PAP lost, in 2015 we also lost six - one SMC and one GRC,” he said.

“In 2011, that result was celebrated with much jubilation amongst opposition supporters. So is it really that big a (PAP) victory in 2015?”

Added Mr Ong: “If you look in terms of percentage in hotly contested areas, there is no 10 per cent swing. It’s about 5. And given SG50 and the Lee Kuan Yew effect ... I don’t think it’s a victory so jubilant to be celebrated.

”This, he claimed, was the reason why PAP Members of Parliament (MPs) are “taking nothing for granted”. “There’s no letting up. The next day we’re already hitting the ground, doing Meet the People Sessions, block visits, engaging the ground, visiting coffee-shops - no letting up,” stressed the MP for Sembawang GRC.

"BECOMING A SHINING RED DOT"

When asked how he felt the PAP could have improved its campaign efforts during GE 2015, Mr Ong pointed to the recruitment of party helpers. “This time round, more and more young ones were writing in, wanting to help,” he said. “We have to have receptacles and projects to engage these people so that they’re on the ground with us, to see what we’re doing day to day and over time become part of us and work together with us.”

As for the party’s plans moving forward, Mr Ong referred to a “balance of continuity and change”. “Continuity in terms of our fundamental values and approach to governance ... such as zero tolerance to corruption, an open economy, emphasising on maintaining social cohesion and racial harmony,” he described.

“But at the same time we must evolve with the times, our policies have to change with circumstances. Voters want contestation of ideas, not theatrics or parties attacking each other… the whole idea of debate should give us a stronger consensus to move forward so we should welcome ideas from all political parties whether white, blue, yellow or so on.”

But Mr Ong also warned against looking “at every issue through a political lens”. “There will be challenges over the next 50 years. It’s tempting to always politicise, but Singapore is too small and the world too dangerous for us to dissipate our energy through internal friction,” he said.

“Better to harness that energy into becoming a shining red dot for SG100.”

FROM CO-DRIVER TO SOLE DRIVER

Aside from Mr Ong, representatives from three other political parties - the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), the National Solidarity Party (NSP) and Singapore People's Party (SPP) - laid out their agenda for the next five years and touched on lessons learnt from the recent election. The Workers' Party declined the invitation to participate.

The National Solidarity Party (NSP) said the party's policy in the coming years would be rooted in one word - "relevance". Said NSP Secretary-General Lim Tean: “In the next five years, we intend to become very relevant, to rebuild ourselves … Our messages and policies will radiate from values and principles which NSP stand for, foremost of which is the solemn duty of the Government to look after its own, and to create the right conditions for Singaporeans to lead better lives.”

He said the time is over where opposition parties could simply claim to offer checks and balances for the PAP. "Low Thia Kiang's analogy in 2011 of the opposition parties being co-drivers with PAP is no longer relevant. I believe in this new era, the opposition parties have got to be prepared to drive their own policy cars and to persuade voters to ride in their cars. It's no longer possible for us to hitch a ride on the policy car of the PAP and hope to modify a car that doesn't belong to us."

"FRIGHTENING LACK OF DISCUSSION"

The Singapore Democratic Party raised concern about the current platforms available for debates on issues concerning Singaporeans, saying there is a "frightening lack of discussion" over where the PAP is taking Singapore.

"We have serious issues that confront our nation - all of which will determine how we live, how our children live in the future and threaten the very identity and existence of Singaporeans," said SDP chief Chee Soon Juan. "For example, the issue of low productivity - the Prime Minister has said we have maxed out on easy ways on how to grow our economy and yet we know that fear is the one biggest factor that's holding us back from productivity and innovation."

He also took a dig at the 300 guests in the room, most of them academics: “The intelligentsia don’t seem to be encouraging or organising enough of these debates, to propel the kind of knowledge-based society we so desperately need.”

"WE HAVE DONE ALL WE COULD"

Meanwhile, the chairman of the Singapore People's Party Lina Chiam noted that GE2015 was a “different battle fought in a different climate" given that it was the nation's Golden Jubilee.

"This is the year when the PAP took special measures to provide all Singaporeans from cradle to grave with a slew of initiatives and incentives. The passing of Mr Lee Kuan Yew also helped to stir emotions," she said.

"We have done all we could. I was one of the Members of Parliament who spoke the most, we did the ground work, but it was not enough … so I don’t know what things I need to do to win Potong Pasir back."

The parties agreed they do have to start working the ground now, to gear up for the next General Election.

- CNA/jo

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How the opposition was 'blown away' at GE2015: Academics weigh in
By Justin Ong and Liyana Othman
POSTED: 04 Nov 2015 13:51 UPDATED: 04 Nov 2015 22:34


SINGAPORE: Academics speaking at a post-General Election (GE) conference held by the Institute Policy of Studies on Wednesday (Nov 4) speculated on the reasons behind the People’s Action Party's landslide win.

“In seeking to outflank the PAP, the Opposition ended up aggressively outflanking themselves,” said Associate Professor Eugene Tan. “This drove conservative, middle-ground voters back into the arms of the tried-and-tested PAP.”

As a result, a potential “watershed”’ election turned out to be a “flight to safety”, Prof Tan said.

“The deep irony is that the electorate’s very receptivity to more political competition contributed to an Opposition blowback, resulting in a PAP blowout win,” he said. “In short, the Opposition was blown away. No one expected this, not even the PAP.”

Prof Tan said that one of the mistakes the Opposition made was that it misread the electorate. “They attempted a time warp and sought to recreate the angst, anxiety and anger of GE 2011. But Lee Kuan Yew’s passing in March was still fresh and had a sobering effect on voters," he said.

The Opposition’s “fragmentation” was also “intensified by the large number of Opposition parties and candidates, and a desperation to be even more left-of-centre than the PAP,” added Prof Tan.

“The Opposition was also perceived to be going into uncharted waters, perhaps even undermining Singapore.”

"ME, MYSELF AND I"

For voters, there was the perception that much was at stake, exacerbated by the social media frenzy speculating a massive slide in support for the PAP, said Prof Tan. Adding to the mix, he pointed out, was the impact of economic challenges, regional security concerns and the haze descending on Singapore come Cooling-Off Day.

Another factor was the “overkill of bread and butter issues”, according to Prof Tan.

Key issues brought up by almost all parties - the cost of living, foreign manpower, minimum wage, and population and immigration - all had individual implications for every voter, argued Prof Tan, which in turn could have reduced their willingness to devote money, time and ideas for the public good - what he called a "me, myself, and I mindset".

The result was that voters were reminded of where their priorities ought to lie, thus leading to a preference for the status quo and the tried-and-tested formula provided by the PAP.

Professor David Chan agreed, calling the electorate “principled and pragmatic”, as well as “present and future-oriented” - hence the overwhelming decision to retain the status quo once they saw what was at stake.

WHAT THE PAP GOT RIGHT

Prof Tan noted that the PAP’s regaining of electoral support was not a first. "It has a track record of clawing back seats and the overall popular vote when it mattered,” he said.

The election was won by the PAP not during the hustings, but with the work done between May 2011 and April 2015, Prof Tan said, identifying Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s apology at a GE2011 rally as “giving the appearance that the PAP has changed”.

The PAP’s trust, confidence, credibility, and goodwill may have eroded somewhat, but they still remain relatively robust, he added.

Prof Tan and Prof Chan also pointed to Dr Gillian Koh’s survey findings of a pragmatic, efficient PAP government and its “significant, fundamental” shifts in policy as key to winning voters over.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE OPPOSITION?

Prof Tan noted that the Opposition now had to awaken to the notion of a discerning electorate, one where not just any Opposition will do - especially when there are no clear, viable alternatives.

He said the Opposition can no longer rely on the “anti-PAP vote” and be “cesspools of political discontentment”.

He added: “They must get votes themselves. GE2020 is make-or-break, especially for non-Workers’ Party opposition, who might otherwise slide into irrelevance.”

Meanwhile, the PAP’s “reassuring victory” indicates the incumbents will have to “balance their instinctive quest for dominance with the electorate’s growing belief that political competition, diversity and contestation are critical ingredients”, Prof Tan commented.

In conclusion, he said that “Singaporeans were arguably the biggest winners of GE2015”.

“Voters concerns and needs have been addressed over the last four years, and are still being addressed. The ruling party responded to these real concerns,” he explained. “And in a sense the Government is reaching out more and rolling out more policies to cater to economic and demographic changes.”

Lauding the growing political consciousness, awareness and knowledge of Singaporean voters, Prof Tan said: “We are hard taskmasters. We want to be courted and not be taken for granted; we want to be persuaded that there is a need for viable opposition.”

- CNA/es

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GE2015 was not an 'Internet Election', survey finds
By Justin Ong
POSTED: 04 Nov 2015 15:00 UPDATED: 05 Nov 2015 08:00


SINGAPORE: Despite growing access to the Internet and the acceleration of mobile Web use, Singaporeans have yet to experience an "Internet election" or "social media election", according to a survey by the Institute of Policy Studies.

After interviewing 2,000 citizens of voting age, lead researcher Carol Soon concluded: “Our results show that GE 2015 was not an Internet election. Comparing social media and mainstream media, people still consumed and trusted mainstream media more.”

The survey, released on Wednesday (Nov 4), found that 69.6 per cent used social networking sites for election-related information during the polls.

While this was an increase from the 30 per cent at the 2011 General Election (GE), the number still lagged behind TV (88.8 per cent), print newspapers (80.2 per cent) and online websites of mass media (76.1 per cent).

Respondents named TV stations and their websites as their most trusted source for election-related information with a mean score of 3.03. Social networking sites came in sixth on the list with a score of 2.57.

A separate IPS survey by Dr Gillian Koh also revealed TV as the most important communication channel for 78 per cent of 2,015 respondents, with print garnering 73 per cent and the Internet 71 per cent.

Out of the 1,335 individuals who cited the Internet as important or very important, 69.5 per cent named Facebook as their top channel.

Dr Soon said another factor was the low online participation during the elections.

“Most people participated in election-related activities once a week or less, and when it came to the kind of activity they were passive, such as surveillance - following, sharing, commenting - or finding out what others are saying, as opposed to using the Internet or social media to mobilise or change opinions,” she elaborated, pointing to how respondents indicated they almost never started discussion threads, wrote posts, or made videos online.

Additionally, Dr Soon said that with almost half of the respondents (47.3 per cent) making up their minds on who to vote for before Nomination Day, it suggested the Internet may not have had a big influence on the final results.

SOCIAL MEDIA EFFECT?

Dr Soon observed that leading up to Polling Day, there were a lot of expectations over the impact of social media, given the volume of online chatter and viral videos generated.

“But we’ve found clearly that it was not a social media election,” she reiterated.

“Although there was some impact, it basically reinforces the fact that social media use is just one part of a larger picture: People use it to find out more information about issues that matter to them, and to form their own attitudes and opinions with regards to these.”

“There could also be the formation of echo chambers. If you flock to groups of people who already agree and share opinions with you, this helps reinforce beliefs and there’s probably not much changing of the mind that goes on.”

Nonetheless, Dr Soon said it was worth noting that comparing social media users (79 per cent) to non-social media users, the former group tended to talk more about the election, were more interested in election issues and participated more offline.

If social media has such an effect, then this is what political parties should be looking out for, Dr Soon advised.

“Perhaps social media is one way to reach out to those politically interested, who are searching for more information, so in terms of outreach and mobilisation there is some potential.”

ONLINE CLOUT

When it came to the parties’ online presence, the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) was the “all-rounder” with the best use of online features and greatest impact, according to IPS researcher Tan Tarn How.

Mr Tan reviewed the five 5 parties with the most candidates - the PAP, Worker’s Party (WP), Singapore Democratic Party, Reform Party and National Solidarity Party.

He found that the PAP had the largest increase in Facebook posts since 2011 with 100 per cent of its content there of “primary” nature - either specially-crafted or value-added posts sourced from elsewhere.

The PAP also started early, ramping up its Facebook posts during the Budget and staying ahead of the other parties until the end of the hustings period.

It also had the top post on Facebook, with 7,387 likes and 7,438 shares for a video of Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam explaining the tax system.

Mr Tan’s study also ranked the PAP’s website as the best in terms of providing information, mobilising supporters, creating communities and facilitating social media integration and interaction.

On Sep 9, two days before Polling Day, the PAP had the most Facebook followers (164,000) and was tied for most Twitter followers (35,000) with WP.

WP and the PAP also used more platforms than the rest, namely through Instagram and mobile apps.

“Financial resources certainly provide an edge when it comes to engaging people online or putting out information,” said Dr Soon. “So with more money and manpower, larger parties are able to put out more information that is attractively packaged and presented, and as a result may resonate better with voters.”

When asked if this meant that social media is not the political equaliser it is often made out to be, she added that in the pre-Internet days, smaller parties faced even larger disadvantages.

“So what social media can do or has done is to perhaps close the gap, but the fact is it remains,” said Dr Soon. “For smaller parties to close the gap, they need to try to attract more volunteers and mobilise more supporters who can then perhaps help expand the kind of outreach they do online.”

- CNA/av

[Ong88]

Long live lky?

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Hard work, policy changes, Jubilee Year helped PAP win poll: PM Lee
By Amanda Lee, TODAY
POSTED: 07 Dec 2015 08:35 UPDATED: 07 Dec 2015 08:40


SINGAPORE: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has pointed to three factors behind the strong mandate for the People’s Action Party (PAP) at the General Election 2015.

First, it was the party’s Members of Parliament and activists who worked hard on the ground and served residents well, Mr Lee said on Sunday (Dec 6) at the PAP Convention.

Among the MPs and their teams who made “a big difference to residents”, Mr Lee mentioned two from East Coast Group Representation Constituency, one of the most closely watched electoral contests: Manpower Minister Lim Swee Say and Senior Minister of State Maliki Osman.

In his Mandarin speech, Mr Lee mentioned MP Charles Chong for winning the support from voters in Punggol East and giving the PAP another chance to serve them.

Although it did not win back Aljunied, Mr Lee, who is the PAP secretary-general, noted that the party won 49.1 per cent of the votes: “There was substantial support.”

He also held up the convincing wins in Potong Pasir by MP Sitoh Yih Pin, who won the single-member ward narrowly in 2011, and MP Tin Pei Ling, who “had a rough time in her first campaign”, but then “concentrated on serving her residents” in MacPherson.

"We must believe in what we’re doing and have the courage to persuade Singaporeans to support us," he said. "We have to take the fight to our opponents, even when the going is tough. Because ultimately, Singaporeans back fighters, and that’s why they’ve backed the PAP for more than 60 years.”

The second factor was the PAP Government’s policy changes and plans for Singapore’s future, with progress made in issues Singaporeans were concerned about, such as transport, housing, immigration and health care.

“We’ve also developed policies to show our gratitude to our pioneer generation,” said Mr Lee, citing the Pioneer Generation Package as a “big hit”.

“Singaporeans understood the spirit of this, the purpose of this and it’s not just (assuring) people medical care ... but about the values which Singaporeans stand for. Through this gesture .... we’ve bound the generations and we have bound Singaporeans closer.”

Thirdly, said Mr Lee, Singaporeans’ sense of national identity was strengthened owing to this Jubilee year and the death of Mr Lee Kuan Yew.

MPs TODAY spoke to felt that the late Mr Lee’s death had made Singaporeans stop to think about how much Singapore has progressed as a nation.

Dr Koh Poh Koon (Ang Mo Kio GRC) said it gave Singaporeans a “reflective moment”. “To a certain extent, it helped us to consolidate our national identity ... and the true spirit of Singaporeans came through in the way we helped each other (during) the week of mourning,” he added.

Mr Christopher de Souza (Holland-Bukit Timah GRC) said the founding PM’s death was a “catalyst” for Singaporeans’ national identity “forming and crystallising”.

Going forward, the PAP must therefore build on that “strong base” to ensure that the Singaporean identity remains strong, he added.

Meanwhile, Ms Tin said the outpouring of strong emotions united people and gave them a “stronger sense” of wanting to keep Singapore unique.

Read the original TODAY report here.

-TODAY/xq

It's about taking credit... not about other factors as well, eg voters' fear of Opp sweeping into power.

Ok lo...

[streetsmart73]

talk, talking & more talks

Next, hor dead man talking.